Skepticism
Dara O’Briain tells it like it is
Dara O’Briain is a comedian and well-known skeptic. I recently caught up with a stage show he recorded, and thought I would share the 6 or so minute spray in the middle which he gave to all things pseudo-science and religion. Very clever, and very entertaining.
Enjoy…
Nostrodamus – the fantasy that keeps on giving
Is it that time again?
It’s a bit like an asteroid on a long orbit. Every few years it visits the Earth to create some great concern, and then disappears from view. Yes, it’s Nostrodamus time again.
In fact I would say this has happened every decade or so of my life. Someone mentions Nostrodamus or makes a documentary of writes a book, and all of a sudden it’s on.
All of sudden, every logical fallacy in the book permeates the conversation in news and TV circles, and no doubt the internet will be pumped up with them as well.
Firstly, we will have the Nostrodamus scholars, waxing lyrical about the great vision of the man, when all they are doing is retro-fitting vague statements to recent events. It’s kind of reverse paradolia; instead of looking at noise and making out a previously unseen pattern, a current event is taken and superimposed on some general statements, looking for a good fit. Obviously, 9/11 is a good candidate.
This will then happen ad nauseam, with every recent event – reactor melt-downs, global warming, tsunamis, tornados, oil rig failures – you name it, Nostro will have predicted it.
And then will come the conspiracy nutters, claiming that these predictions have been suppressed by governments, and use this for the excuse that the discussion only surfaces every decade or so. Yes, Nostro has been suppressed because governments know they can’t change any of his ‘predictions’.
It’s just that his so-called ‘predictions’ have no predictive power at all. Zilch. It’s not a lot different to your daily horoscope. The statements sound vague, but when you do find the dollar on the ground, you suddenly remember that prophetic statement in Woman’s Day – ‘You will come into money unexpectedly’.
Do I need to lecture you on confirmation bias again? No? Excellent.
I’m not going to quote Nostro – it’s pointless. Just think of any variation of: “A thing will happen to the person at the place when some other thing happens“. I bet that happens, seriously. You can quote me.
Anyhow, brace yourselves for the onslaught of Nostro-accolytes, whose tiny minds will be blown by the unerring accuracy of our most famous fortune teller, and will want to share their insight with everyone.
This is my prediction.
Central State and The Age – I’m really spooked now
Just what this video was doing on the Melbourne Age website I have no idea. They’ve started this ‘Age.TV’ section, and I suppose they have to publish something. And I’m sure the quality of the content can only improve after the planned sacking of 1900 staff.
It’s a ‘documentary’ about ghost hunting, set in a disused mental institution called Central State, which apparently closed in 1994, and of course is full of tortured souls.
I really hope I’ve missed the point of this movie – that it’s satire. But I don’t think so. It’s just another execrable piece of self-delusion by people who really want to believe in ghosts. Naturally these people are easy fodder for film-makers who want to cash in on their fantasy.
Yes, it’s another bunch of people who’ve drunk the kool-aid of the paranormal, much like our friends at MyTelekinesis. (Hi guys, where ya bin? It’s awfully quiet when you’re not around. I know, too busy moving stuff around by thinking about it, right?)
I thought we were done with this sort of thing. Dimly lit scenes, inexplicable sounds, ghostly images in the lens, and ‘experts’ who can feel the energy of those poor, tortured souls.
Please don’t bother watching the whole thing. Just skip through randomly. I guarantee that every frame you randomly select will contain the same crap.
In fact, just watch the first few minutes to get the flavour. You will be greeted with the horrifying footage of a ghostly visage in one of the windows, which sends our intrepid film crew into a frenzy. No matter that this ghostly visage clearly looks like a knotted up bed sheet.
What follows is an exploration of the building, in which there’s never enough light. Funny about that. A couple of generators would fix that, but somehow no-one thinks of it. So we have a bunch of brainless twits following each-other through tunnels, bullshit-detecting equipment flashing away, sampling synth stuck on ‘Ghosties’, mouthing inanities like ‘yeah, definitely a totally different energy in here’ and ‘there’s something here’. Well, duh. My guess would be half a dozen or so morons. But there I go being all skeptical again.
Really people, can’t we move on from ghosts, holy or otherwise?
And if this is the type of content which The Melbourne Age will have behind it’s shiny new pay-wall, then their new business model will be a bigger disaster than everyone is predicting. I think in future I’ll be getting my news and analysis from The Conversation, unless a mining magnate buys that as well.
MyTelekinesis – I’m converted
It turns out that I can do telekinesis. Who’d have thought. Inspired by an example by correspondent Viktor, I’ve discovered my inner chi.
Viktor said:
Its intended as a demonstration of psychic ability, not an illusion.
Its about the same thing I’d do if put on the spot.http://www.mytelekinesis.com/chi-pull-bumpcjmixmaster.html
I realize its not scientific proof, but still food for thought.
So, here’s my breakthrough performance, except that I’ve upped the degree of difficulty: by turning the folds towards me instead of away, and de-cluttering the desk so you can see there are not wires or levers. Also, I’m not much good at sucking, although many my recent correspondents would think I suck bigtime. In addition, I’ve filmed in high def, and made sure to have some nice solid background shapes to enable the viewed to detect any relative movements in the scene. I think that’s as scientific as it gets.
Anyway, sit back and enjoy the mystical stylings of the amazing TheRationalbrain:
Over the coming months I will be honing my skills and attempting more brazen feats of telekinesis, so stay tuned.
And I’ll be emailing Randi my bank account details later today.
“The gift of thinking”
In response to the post on the Scepti-kids, regular correspondent Luxinvestor was moved to relate her own similar experience in which some teachers, and her Dad in particular, were able to give her the ‘gift of thinking‘. She says:
I have a lot of teachers to thank who took the same type of initiative. And my Dad, for undoing the Sunday School damage each and every week.
Having a mom who grew up in the church, you can understand her believing that her child possibly burning in hell was a true fear for her. God was a big part of my youth. Every Sunday morning and Wednesday night at the Mega church (actually built in the shape of a crown, on the top of a hill mind you) spent being told to be good or else burn for eternity.
But, what I saw as just fun time with Dad the engineer was really learning to question everything. Even Sunday school teachings. To understand the why’s to what my eyes see everyday. My questions were rarely answered by him. I was directed to a primitive Google, known as the library. If my answer was still wrong, I was sent back. That taught me how to properly research and not just believe the first answer that seemed right. And, to show my work. Despite a few calls to poison control, I was still allowed to experiment freely.
He fostered a love of science and critical thinking through PBS afternoons, Carl Sagan specials, science fiction stories (still my favorite genre of books) and a life long subscription to Popular Science/Mechanics. It was fun. It didn’t seem like I was being taught. Unlike the hell fire and damnation of the church.
Needless to say, the Pastor of my mothers church found me exasperating. I demanded to know how these “miracles” were possible. “Have faith” just wasn’t cutting it. Once I was old enough to decide church wasn’t for me, I did investigate the “spiritual” sides of life, herbals and all other types of pseudo-science. Who wouldn’t? It’s sounds awesome! So easy, you don’t have to learn anything. Until you realize it’s complete crap and would probably kill you.
I am thankful to have been given the gift of thinking for myself and to never be afraid to demand proof. He opened the door but let me make my own evidence based choices. These lesson I still use everyday.
Excellent contribution, thanks Luxi.
It’s exactly the sort of thing we need to be doing with kids, but it takes guidance and mentoring and Luxinvestor was lucky enough to get enough of both to break through.
I’m happy to post any similar stories from other readers, so please send them in.
The other take-aways from this story are that 1. Dads are cool, and, 2. Engineers are cool. Just sayin’.
Scepti-kids – Well done Mr. V.
Here’s a nice little story to warm the cockles of an old skeptic’s heart.
This is an example of ground-up skepticism, albeit with a gentle push provided by Richard Saunders of the Australian Skeptics. It is an example of a teacher taking on more than they get paid for, in order to help young people deal with the world with their eyes open. It’s an excellent age to set a foundation of skepticism; and if not skepticism as such, at least the ability to ask the right questions rather than take things as given.
I know that the Australian Skeptics have been doing things in secondary schools for quite some time, and it’s an area I’ve personally tried to develop.
But we can’t take this sort of thing for granted. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dept of Education decided to shut it down, although what the kids get up to at lunch time is a matter for them.
Here’s an idea. To counterbalance the Woo-ligious Education component in schools, why not have a Reality Education subject, in which to cover all manner of skeptical thinking? If we got enough penetration however, the consequences would be diabolical. Sales of Blackmores non-medicines would plummet, and several university chiropractic departments would have to close their doors.
One can dream.
Anyone for a cheap Stradivarius?
Here’s a cute example of the benefits of decent testing in which (at the very least) the subjects are blinded to which item they are testing.
The item in this case is the violin, and the hypothesis being tested was that the legendary Stradivarius has a superior sound to violins manufactured more recently.
Twenty one musicians were given six violins to test – three modern, and three old, including two Strads. The researchers dimmed the lights, and even applied perfume to the chin-rests to mask any telltale smells – such as mustiness I guess.
Not only were the musicians not able to identify the Strads, but they preferred the modern instruments.
This finding demolishes decades, and perhaps centuries, of conventional wisdom, that somehow the Stradivarius is superior. Implied in this is that the maker had some secret skill or ingredient, and this has served to keep the price of each instrument up in the millions.
This example fits nicely into a common category of logical fallacies. Just because something is expensive, old, rare, exotic, or blessed by Tibetan monks, does not necessarily make it good, or good value.
It also reinforces the need to continue to ask the question about how we know that various claims are true. When it really matters, we should be asking for the evidence for ourselves, or at least seeking impartial opinions. See this post for some rules of thumb on assessing claims.
The Atheist Wars
In case you weren’t aware, there’s a raging battle going on.
No, I’m not referring to Afghanistan or Iraq, but the Atheist Wars, being waged by two camps, known as the New Atheists, and the Accommodationists. I thought a brief discussion of each group was timely, given the recent ‘chatter’ between these two camps.
And what better way to ring in the new year, than with a discussion about religion? Read the rest of this entry »
And also Happy Birthday Carl Sagan
Oops. While basking in the 1st birthday celebrations of Rationalbrain, I completely missed the birthday of our patron saint of science and rational thinking – Carl Sagan.
November 9th is actually known as Carl Sagan Day now.
I undertake to say 3 Hail Carls, and recite 20 times the holy mantra that in order to create and apple pie from scratch, it takes 14 billion years.
Must See: Science Under Attack
I’ve just belatedly watched the excellent doco by Sir Paul Nurse, new President of the Royal Society, in which he has a look at why science is often mistrusted by particular groups and perhaps the public at large. Thanks BBC2 and SBS online – watch it here while you can, or on Youtube here.
Quantum Jumping = Quantum Crap
Here we go again. Is there no end to this?
In the annals of pseudo-science, the word ‘quantum’ will go down in history as a god-send. This is the word which launched a thousand scams, and allowed the delusional and the deceptive to babble their way into the wallets and minds of millions. I’ve already pointed this out ad nauseam, so I’m not even going to link to earlier articles, but if you’re interested, just search for ‘quantum’ at rationalbrain.
Here’s yet another more current example – Quantum Jumping.
The Bayesian approach for dummies
Even though I studied it at university (long, long ago, in a universe far, far away), I have recently become re-acquainted with Bayesian probability (BP) as a result of some of the reading I’ve been doing on the subjects explored in this blog. It turns out that what seemed like an abstract mathematical concept at uni is actually a tremendously useful tool – both in a quantitative sense and in a conceptual/philosophical sense. Hopefully as a result of the brief discussion below it will become obvious how it relates to all the various things I’ve been ranting about over the past few months. And, don’t worry, there’s no maths involved unless you want to pursue it yourself.
Westall 66 – ‘Our Roswell’ is pure PR.
Ever since ‘flying saucers’ were invented in the late 40’s (in the US of course), we’ve been peppered with sightings on a regular basis. One can speculate why it is that we weren’t buzzed in the 30’s or 20’s or earlier – where the extraterrestrials still in transit, arriving only in the US in 1947? If so, there must have been a string of them in transit from various parts of the cosmos, since they have been arriving at frequent intervals ever since. Read the rest of this entry »
Anyone still out there?
Given that the world was going to end, I thought that there was no point in blogging, although that would give me a perfect excuse for a low readership.
Anyway, I’m still here, and so are you it seems.
That international nut-job, Harold Camping, was desperately egging on the end of his world, but yet again, it didn’t happen. But, of course, I’m sure he didn’t think it would. He’s just another “Jesus=Money” phoney, who’s been in the god industry for decades.
His website has now counted down to zero, and one has to ask, why bother keeping the page up? Or is there no-one left at lunacy-central to take it down?
On one hand, the whole notion is hilarious – the page proudly proclaims “Judgement Day, May 21 2011“, followed by a beautiful piece of advertising copy “the Bible guarantees it!“, as if we needed to be sold on the idea.
On the other hand idiots like this are greedy, bigoted, and clearly unhinged, and should be held to account for the outcomes of their preaching, as in these cases here, here and here.
I’ve had spirited exchanges before on this blog (see the whole Kim Tinkham thing early on) on how charismatic individuals can influence others to do stupid things. I contend that we are far from perfect, and are prone to due stupid things, some of us more than others, and that people who prey on this weakness should be held to account. My critics will argue that ‘we are all adults and have choices’. Well, this is another perfect example of how certain individuals can influence others; others who are ready and willing to be influenced. I am in no doubt that people like Harold Camping should be held to account.
I suspect that if I were to perpetuate a similar hoax, I’d be in trouble with the law for the mayhem that would ensue. But, once again, religion is being used as a shield – providing the perfect cover to do stupid and irrational things without being answerable to anyone.
So, we are still here. Life goes on.
A word of advice to disappointed rapturites – stop worrying about the next life and the after-life, and start making the most of this one. You can spend years of precious life counting down to oblivion, handing over your money to every charlatan that comes along, and one-way chats with improbable beings, or, you can live each day as it comes, spend any surplus resources you have on people who need help, and chat instead with friends, family and even foes.
Close encounters of the Elmore kind
On the 2nd Saturday of each month, Mrs. Rationalbrain and I visit the Kyneton market to browse and pick up the usual farmers’ markety kind of stuff – bread, olives, plants and so on. We did this again yesterday, just after an excellent breakfast at the Little Swallow, just across the road in historic Piper St. What does this have to do with skepticism or rational thinking you ask? Read the rest of this entry »
Tricks of the mind: Confirmation bias
In considering all the topics I’ve covered in this blog, such as pseudo-science, alternative medicines, medicine proper, and religion, there is one phenomenon which keeps appearing: confirmation bias. So let’s take a quick look at confirmation bias, and how it helps skew our view of reality.
SCENAR and the Pathology of a Scam
While going about my business the other day, I came across SCENAR in a facebook entry by a member of the family, who claimed that after a SCENAR therapy treatment their shoulder was now back to normal.
Having been on the receiving end of therapies for a lot of sporting injuries over many years, I was surprised not to have heard of this one, so I once again enrolled into the University of Google, the institution in which everyone is an expert, or so they think.
The Research Bypass
While writing a piece on the pathology of scams (coming soon!), I set out to identify those markers or traits which are common to scams – whether phoney remedies, therapies or even religions.
One of those traits is what I call the ‘research bypass’ – a name which retains that link to things medical, but also amuses me. Anyway, discussion of that trait grew a bit, so I’ve decided to give it its very own post.
So the premise is as follows: what do you do if your product or service won’t live very long in the marketplace, due to its poor or non-performance? You give it a research bypass. Read the rest of this entry »
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